Despite Gaza Flotilla Incident, Rise in Willingness to Compromise Among Palestinians and Israelis

Despite the Gaza flotilla incident, there is a rise among both Israelis and Palestinians in their willingness to compromise. However, two thirds on both sides remain pessimistic about the future of the peace process.

This is just one of the findings from the latest joint Israeli-Palestinian poll conducted by the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace at the Hebrew University and the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research in Ramallah.

Flotilla incident

Following the Gaza flotilla incident, 63% of Palestinians believe they came out the winners. Most Israelis (50%) put the blame for the grave results on the organizers of the flotilla. Only 28% of Israelis believe that the Israeli political echelon which approved the operation is responsible for the results of the incident, and 13% believe that the responsibility lies with the military echelon which carried out the operation.

Turkey-Israel relations and Middle East support for the Palestinian cause

In the aftermath of the flotilla incident and while Turkish-Israeli relations worsen, Turkey emerges as the most popular regional country among Palestinians: 43% of the Palestinians believe that Turkey is the regional country most supportive of the Palestinian cause. But it is worth noting that Iran was selected by only 6% and Syria by 5%. Egypt was selected by 13%, Saudi Arabia by 5%, Lebanon by 3% and Jordan by 2%.

Settlements freeze

47% of Israelis support Prime Minister Netanyahu’s decision to impose a ten month freeze on construction in the settlements; 44% oppose it. These figures are similar to those obtained in the December 2009 poll shortly after the freeze was announced.

Proximity talks

55% of the Palestinians will not grant legitimacy to an agreement reached in the proximity talks, while 35% will; 57% are pessimistic about the outcome of these talks, while 23% are optimistic.

If the proximity talks fail, the option endorsed by most Palestinians is to ask the UN Security Council to recognize a Palestinian State (65%). The next most popular option (60% support) is to unilaterally declare a Palestinian state. 51% support the option to start a non-violent resistance. The other options asked about received only minority support: 44% support the resumption of the armed Intifada (54% oppose it); 39% support the dissolution of the PA if the talks fail (56% oppose it), and 27% support abandoning the two-state solution and demanding instead a one-state solution (71% oppose it).

Clinton/Geneva Parameters

There is an increase in support for the Clinton parameters overall package in both publics compared to 2009. The change is larger and is consistent across all parameters among Palestinians. Palestinians are now split half between support and opposition to the overall package (49% support and 49% oppose it). This level of support represents an increase in support of 11 percentage points from 2009. A majority of Israelis (52%) support the overall package, versus 37% who oppose it. This level of support is similar to that obtained in 2006 through 2008, and larger than the support indicated in 2009 (46%).

Despite the increase in willingness to compromise among the two publics, neither Palestinians nor Israelis consider it likely that an independent Palestinian State will be established next to the State of Israel in the next five years. Two thirds in both publics think that chances for the establishment of an independent Palestinian State next to the State of Israel are non-existent or low.

The Saudi Plan

59% of the Israelis oppose and 35% support the Saudi initiative which calls for Arab recognition of and normalization of relations with Israel after it ends its occupation of Arab territories occupied in 1967 and after the establishment of a Palestinian state. The plan calls for Israeli retreat from all territories occupied in 1967 including Gaza, the West Bank, Jerusalem and the Golan Heights, and the establishment of a Palestinian state. Among Palestinians, 67% support the plan and 30% oppose it; 68% supported it in December and 30% opposed it.

Boycotts of Israeli products

72% of Palestinians support the boycott on products produced in settlements, but 60% oppose preventing Palestinians from working in the settlements. 44% believe that the boycott will hurt the proximity talks, and the rest split between the belief that it will benefit the talks and that it will have no impact.

The Palestinian sample size was 1270 adults interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank, East Jerusalem and Gaza Strip in 127 randomly selected locations between June 10 and 13, 2010. The margin of error is 3%. The Israeli sample includes 810 adult Israelis interviewed by phone in Hebrew, Arabic or Russian between June 6 and 16, 2010. The margin of error is 3.5%. The poll was planned and supervised by Prof. Yaacov Shamir of the Harry S. Truman Research Institute for the Advancement of Peace and the Department of Communication and Journalism at the Hebrew University, and Prof. Khalil Shikaki, Director of the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR). This survey was conducted with the support of the Ford Foundation Cairo Office and the Konrad Adenauer Stiftung in Jerusalem and Ramallah.